Infectiologist Vasif Aliyev: “I think coronavirus infection rate will reach peak level in middle of June”
“Currently, the growth of number of coronavirus infections is firstly associated with easing of quarantine regime. Because as a result of easing, the risk of contacts between people also increases”, said infectiologist Vasif Aliyev, head of Work group for Infectious diseases under the Administration of Regional Medical Divisions (TABIB) in his statement to APA.
He said during the period when everybody stayed at home in isolated condition, the number of infections was little: “Currently, the quarantine easing measures are being taken. Everybody goes out in the city streets, moves freely. The quarantine regime is eased day by day, the restrictions are lifted. And the second reason of growth of infection rate is people’s irresponsible behaviors. People neglect the given recommendations and the prohibitions. Of course, there are also the responsible people. But as there are quite a significant number of irresponsible people, the responsible people also suffer because of the irresponsible ones. When going out in the city street, please observe and see how many people are wearing mask, how many people comply with social distancing?
Some unlawful actions are committed. And mainly in regions, the bans imposed in regard to mourning ceremonies are neglected. The people not attaching significance to these bans gather together in massive numbers. The massive gatherings are the best environment for spread of the virus because people stand at a very close distance from each other in such environment. At least 2 meters distance should be observed in order to protect oneself from the virus, this objective law is violated in the massive gathering places. People’s non-observation of hygiene rules, non-wearing of mask, non-observation of distance – in case of non-compliance with these three important and simple recommendations, the infection risk increases”.
V. Aliyev noted that if even the fines regarding non-wearing of mask are applied, we will not witness decline in number of infections in a short time: “Some period of time should pass. If we take into consideration the incubation period of the disease, we will be able to check whether or not the number of infections decreases after at least 2 weeks”.
The infectiologist also lent clarity to the issue of importance of mask wearing: “In fact, the protective capacity of the masks for a healthy person is weak. The mask should be worn by sick people. When we recommend everybody to wear mask we also take into consideration the people who have this disease in a light form, as well as the asymptomatic people who don’t show any clinical symptom. Although such people don’t show a symptom of the disease, they are the active virus carriers. These people can transmit the virus to other people. The wearing of a mask by all people including sick and healthy ones allows for preventing the growth of transmissibility of the disease. At the same time, this is a social message. When everybody wears mask, other people being in such an environment become self-critical and are forced to wear a mask. If everybody wears a mask and observes social distancing, the infection will take place anyway. The protective capacity of the mask is not 100 percent. But in such case the number of infections will significantly decrease and will differ from the present situation”.
V. Aliyev said the weather and the season has nothing to do with this disease. He said this virus has spread in warm countries as well: “As COVID-19 is a new virus, it is not yet clear how much time and under which temperature it will continue to spread in the summer season. Currently, the number of infections in the country can’t be considered a peak level. The infection rate moves towards rise. I think that the coronavirus infection rate will reach peak level in the middle of June. This may delay for some time. I think the number of infections will increase during June 15-20”.
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